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Red161
460765.2
173262.5
318433.3
Blue202
463566.7
122030.4
253070.8
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16917650100150200250300161202

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+25
Endgame+47
Fouls+41
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave9
7Coral scored#7
34Coral points35
37Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +18
18Coral scored#24
66Coral points86
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#3
12Processor points18
20Net points12
32Algae points30
98Total teleop116
Reef
7L4#14
9L3#6
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#7
32Game pieces#37
BargeBlue +22
14Cage & park36
14Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +41
12Foul points6
161Total score202

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.20.4
65.665.2
Auto13.8
Teleop44.9
End6.5
blue by 5.6
70.80.6
70.270.8
Auto17.1
Teleop44.4
End9.4
Second
62.50.4
62.962.5
Auto16.3
Teleop37.0
End9.2
blue by 4.1
66.70.6
66.166.7
Auto17.6
Teleop39.5
End9.6
Third
3184
#18
33.30.4
33.733.3
Auto5.1
Teleop25.1
End3.0
red by 2.9
1220
#25
30.40.6
29.830.4
Auto9.0
Teleop15.5
End5.9