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Red167
460765.2
173262.5
318433.3
Blue187
463566.7
122030.4
253070.8
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169176100150200250300167187

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+4
Endgame+14
Fouls+20
AutonomousBlue +13
0Leave3
6Coral scored#8
30Coral points40
30Total auto43
TeleoperatedRed +9
22Coral scored#22
79Coral points78
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
12Processor points12
24Net points16
36Algae points28
115Total teleop106
Reef
10L4#9
8L3#8
6L2#7
4L1 · trough#6
36Game pieces#36
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +20
6Foul points12
167Total score187

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.20.0
65.665.6
Auto13.8
Teleop44.9
End6.5
blue by 5.6
70.80.2
70.070.2
Auto17.1
Teleop44.4
End9.4
Second
62.50.0
62.962.9
Auto16.3
Teleop37.0
End9.2
blue by 4.1
66.70.2
65.866.1
Auto17.6
Teleop39.5
End9.6
Third
3184
#18
33.30.0
33.733.7
Auto5.1
Teleop25.1
End3.0
red by 2.9
1220
#25
30.40.2
29.629.8
Auto9.0
Teleop15.5
End5.9