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Red121
253070.8
469324.2
790022.9
Blue126
207727.2
173262.5
229038.7
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions112133050150200250300121126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+13
Endgame+11
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave6
5Coral scored#6
27Coral points31
30Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +6
13Coral scored#15
47Coral points53
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
6Processor points6
16Net points16
22Algae points22
69Total teleop75
Reef
8L4#9
3L3#5
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#26
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
6Foul points0
121Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.81.7
53.855.5
Auto17.1
Teleop44.4
End9.4
red by 8.3
62.50.8
55.055.8
Auto16.3
Teleop37.0
End9.2
Second
4693
#32
24.21.0
24.925.9
Auto4.4
Teleop17.7
End2.1
blue by 14.5
2290
#12
38.70.8
32.132.9
Auto10.9
Teleop27.5
End0.3
Third
7900
#30
22.91.7
20.922.6
Auto4.4
Teleop14.0
End4.4
blue by 4.4
2077
#17
27.21.4
26.227.6
Auto4.7
Teleop19.6
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed25%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
48%Barge oddsEarned61%Barge oddsEarned