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Red154
220234.0
664321.9
253070.8
Blue183
741728.6
622349.4
460765.2
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12214080100160180200154183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+23
Endgame+35
Fouls+29
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave9
5Coral scored#6
25Coral points28
34Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +20
21Coral scored#27
76Coral points96
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
12Processor points12
12Net points12
24Algae points24
100Total teleop120
Reef
8L4#13
8L3#7
5L2#8
5L1 · trough#5
31Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +29
6Foul points0
154Total score183

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.82.2
62.764.9
Auto17.1
Teleop44.4
End9.4
red by 5.6
65.23.0
56.859.9
Auto13.8
Teleop44.9
End6.5
Second
2202
#14
34.02.2
28.931.1
Auto9.9
Teleop21.3
End2.8
blue by 15.4
49.44.0
41.145.2
Auto8.7
Teleop32.3
End8.4
Third
6643
#31
21.92.2
17.619.8
Auto3.4
Teleop16.4
End2.0
blue by 6.7
7417
#28
28.63.0
25.528.6
Auto6.2
Teleop21.8
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsMissed86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned52%Barge oddsEarned