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Red133
206224.1
616619.4
253070.8
Blue116
122030.4
335438.0
631832.7
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1199050100150200133116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+17Teleop
+17Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave9
6Coral scored#3
30Coral points17
30Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +13
18Coral scored#14
63Coral points52
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
12Processor points6
12Net points16
24Algae points22
87Total teleop74
Reef
10L4#6
7L3#6
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#22
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
0Foul points0
133Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.82.1
65.467.5
Auto17.1
Teleop44.4
End9.4
red by 32.8
3354
#20
38.02.0
33.935.9
Auto8.9
Teleop27.8
End1.3
Second
2062
#34
24.11.8
22.224.1
Auto5.4
Teleop17.5
End1.1
blue by 8.6
6318
#23
32.72.0
27.729.7
Auto4.8
Teleop25.7
End2.2
Third
6166
#19
19.41.8
17.619.4
Auto4.1
Teleop12.0
End3.3
blue by 11.0
1220
#25
30.42.2
24.927.1
Auto9.0
Teleop15.5
End5.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsEarned