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Red155
702151.3
582637.0
282655.7
Blue162
874451.6
283032.7
179246.3
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15113750100200250155162

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+9Teleop
+1Endgame
Fouls+7
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave6
7Coral scored#3
35Coral points17
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +12
16Coral scored#24
59Coral points87
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#2
12Processor points12
24Net points8
36Algae points20
95Total teleop107
Reef
10L4#7
6L3#9
4L2#6
3L1 · trough#5
31Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Penalties & totalBlue +7
0Foul points8
155Total score162

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2826
#16
55.70.3
54.654.9
Auto12.9
Teleop36.3
End6.5
red by 4.1
8744
#20
51.60.5
51.952.4
Auto10.0
Teleop38.9
End2.8
Second
51.30.3
50.250.5
Auto12.5
Teleop28.0
End10.8
red by 5.0
46.30.5
46.647.1
Auto9.4
Teleop30.1
End6.8
Third
5826
#24
37.00.3
35.936.3
Auto10.2
Teleop24.5
End2.3
red by 4.4
2830
#15
32.70.5
32.933.4
Auto5.7
Teleop22.4
End4.6