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Red85
277141.8
295929.4
14133.5
Blue107
8539.5
400428.3
7433.3
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11110305015020025085107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
Teleop+20
Endgame+22
Fouls+22
AutonomousRed +1
6Leave9
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points6
16Total auto15
TeleoperatedBlue +21
8Coral scored#15
27Coral points54
1Processor algae#2
6Net algae#3
6Processor points12
24Net points12
30Algae points24
57Total teleop78
Reef
4L4#4
2L3#7
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#3
17Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +2
12Cage & park14
12Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +22
0Foul points0
85Total score107

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2771
#13
41.80.5
42.341.8
Auto9.8
Teleop26.0
End6.0
red by 2.3
85
#27
39.50.1
39.239.4
Auto7.5
Teleop26.2
End5.7
Second
141
#9
33.50.5
33.933.5
Auto6.6
Teleop18.4
End8.5
red by 0.2
74
#7
33.30.1
33.133.2
Auto3.0
Teleop22.3
End8.1
Third
2959
#29
29.40.5
29.929.4
Auto5.8
Teleop23.9
End-0.3
red by 1.1
4004
#14
28.30.1
28.028.2
Auto5.1
Teleop16.6
End6.6