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Red103
999314.7
958710.4
477437.1
Blue129
999419.1
1000239.0
453726.6
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions58710100150200103129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+26
Endgame+34
Fouls+26
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave9
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points7
12Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +22
13Coral scored#16
45Coral points57
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
6Processor points12
16Net points20
22Algae points32
67Total teleop89
Reef
7L4#5
4L3#4
3L2#4
1L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +26
8Foul points0
103Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4774
#10
37.11.4
32.634.0
Auto4.4
Teleop26.1
End6.6
blue by 1.8
39.03.5
24.127.6
Auto8.1
Teleop29.6
End1.3
Second
9993
#23
14.72.3
15.317.6
Auto5.4
Teleop8.7
End0.6
blue by 11.9
26.63.5
25.929.4
Auto5.6
Teleop12.3
End8.8
Third
9587
#26
10.41.4
12.213.6
Auto2.5
Teleop6.1
End1.8
blue by 8.7
9994
#14
19.15.8
12.518.3
Auto3.8
Teleop8.0
End7.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsEarned