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Red84
558456.2
1055210.8
999214.3
Blue97
699642.8
999114.9
1000239.0
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions87906070801001108497

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+21
Endgame+13
Fouls+13
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave3
3Coral scored#5
17Coral points27
26Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +17
9Coral scored#14
34Coral points51
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
44Total teleop61
Reef
4L4#6
3L3#7
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
14Game pieces#21
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +13
0Foul points0
84Total score97

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.20.2
57.958.1
Auto17.1
Teleop32.9
End6.2
red by 13.4
6996
#13
42.80.4
45.545.9
Auto8.5
Teleop27.7
End6.7
Second
9992
#19
14.30.2
12.012.2
Auto4.8
Teleop7.2
End2.3
blue by 24.6
39.00.4
31.832.2
Auto8.1
Teleop29.6
End1.3
Third
10.80.2
11.511.6
Auto3.8
Teleop5.7
End1.3
blue by 4.1
9991
#18
14.90.4
14.214.7
Auto4.3
Teleop7.1
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsEarned45%Barge oddsMissed