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Red87
999619.7
472915.9
1000239.0
Blue44
564817.6
999524.7
587613.7
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6767204060801001201408744

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+43Teleop
+45Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave9
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +36
14Coral scored#7
49Coral points25
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
12Processor points0
8Net points8
20Algae points8
69Total teleop33
Reef
5L4#2
6L3#2
2L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#9
BargeRed +2
2Cage & park0
2Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
0Foul points2
87Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.01.6
32.233.8
Auto8.1
Teleop29.6
End1.3
red by 14.2
24.71.3
25.924.6
Auto5.7
Teleop12.7
End6.3
Second
19.71.9
16.118.1
Auto3.4
Teleop13.8
End2.5
red by 2.1
5648
#20
17.61.2
19.918.7
Auto1.5
Teleop15.1
End1.0
Third
4729
#15
15.91.6
14.916.5
Auto3.4
Teleop12.2
End0.3
red by 2.2
5876
#21
13.71.2
13.912.7
Auto1.9
Teleop8.3
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
49%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed66%Barge oddsMissed