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Red110
998626.9
1000239.0
999314.7
Blue116
651053.5
999815.8
999524.7
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6694050150200250110116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
0Teleop0
Endgame+24
Fouls+6
AutonomousBlue +10
9Leave9
1Coral scored#3
7Coral points17
16Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +10
14Coral scored#12
50Coral points42
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
12Processor points6
12Net points16
24Algae points22
74Total teleop64
Reef
4L4#6
5L3#4
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +24
2Cage & park26
2Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
18Foul points0
110Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.03.8
20.424.2
Auto8.1
Teleop29.6
End1.3
blue by 14.6
53.53.0
50.853.9
Auto13.8
Teleop33.8
End6.0
Second
26.96.3
8.114.4
Auto4.7
Teleop21.3
End0.8
red by 2.1
24.75.0
7.312.3
Auto5.7
Teleop12.7
End6.3
Third
9993
#23
14.76.3
7.113.4
Auto5.4
Teleop8.7
End0.6
blue by 1.1
9998
#24
15.85.0
12.817.8
Auto4.6
Teleop7.8
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed60%Barge oddsEarned