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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10988050150200141126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+9Teleop
+9Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave6
5Coral scored#3
26Coral points17
26Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +6
14Coral scored#13
51Coral points47
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#7
18Processor points12
24Net points28
42Algae points40
93Total teleop87
Reef
6L4#4
6L3#6
3L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#25
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
8Foul points2
141Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.02.1
58.160.3
Auto18.4
Teleop41.1
End3.5
red by 6.2
56.82.9
46.048.9
Auto11.6
Teleop38.5
End6.7
Second
6766
#10
45.72.1
34.136.2
Auto7.6
Teleop37.1
End0.9
red by 15.7
5515
#15
30.02.9
22.325.2
Auto6.6
Teleop20.0
End3.3
Third
9991
#11
13.93.6
8.712.3
Auto1.8
Teleop6.4
End5.5
red by 0.9
13.02.9
11.614.5
Auto4.4
Teleop7.2
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsEarned38%Barge oddsEarned