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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13868050100150200250163119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+26Teleop
+18Endgame
+44Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
0Leave6
7Coral scored#1
37Coral points7
37Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +2
18Coral scored#16
66Coral points56
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#6
12Processor points12
16Net points24
28Algae points36
94Total teleop92
Reef
10L4#7
8L3#5
5L2#4
2L1 · trough#1
31Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +44
26Foul points0
163Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.71.5
59.661.1
Auto21.1
Teleop42.3
End1.4
red by 10.0
9993
#1DQ
54.64.5
35.239.7
Auto6.0
Teleop40.1
End8.4
Second
56.81.5
47.849.2
Auto11.6
Teleop38.5
End6.7
red by 13.4
8810
#12DQ
43.42.7
30.533.2
Auto5.4
Teleop31.1
End7.0
Third
6433
#20
14.61.5
7.69.1
Auto4.4
Teleop7.9
End2.4
blue by 7.7
9994
#23DQ
22.34.5
12.617.1
Auto3.8
Teleop12.2
End6.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsMissed36%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsEarned15%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
62%Barge oddsMissed46%Barge oddsEarned