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Red40
54112.5
49314.2
Blue23
96412.6
38210.7
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions24240102030404023

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
493
Unranked
14.22.2
11.013.2
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.6
964
Unranked
12.62.2
13.211.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
541
Unranked
12.57.1
6.013.2
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.8
382
Unranked
10.70.5
11.511.0
Auto
Teleop
End