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Red2
25571.2
21470.6
28980.9
Blue1
28111.7
14250.5
20460.9
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions230468101221

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1.20.0
0.80.7
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 0.5
1.70.1
1.51.3
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
2898
#31
0.90.0
1.01.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Level
2046
#29
0.90.1
0.70.6
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
2147
#52
0.60.0
0.40.4
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.1
1425
#36
0.50.1
0.60.5
Auto
Teleop
End