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Red151
171146.4
498845.3
516256.5
Blue106
332261.9
366729.1
31476.2
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions128154050100200250300151106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5162
#33
56.51.0
57.558.5
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 19.7
314
#16
76.22.2
65.062.8
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
1711
#49
46.41.0
36.837.8
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 15.5
3322
#63
61.92.2
64.161.9
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
4988
#35
45.31.0
37.638.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 16.2
3667
#41
29.12.2
20.818.7
Auto
Teleop
End