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Red126
49472.2
477940.8
439146.5
Blue136
317529.6
7065.1
353453.8
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1461640100200300400126136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
494
#20
72.21.2
70.769.6
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 7.2
70
#40
65.11.3
70.268.9
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
4391
#47
46.51.2
45.244.0
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 7.4
3534
#57
53.81.3
56.655.3
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
4779
#62
40.81.2
33.232.1
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 11.2
3175
#64
29.61.3
34.533.3
Auto
Teleop
End