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Red186
41831.8
147782.3
541410.5
Blue170
331063.5
999918.2
258747.4
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions110107050150200186170

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1477
Unranked
82.33.9
63.767.7
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 18.8
3310
Unranked
63.53.0
49.452.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
418
Unranked
31.83.9
32.236.1
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 15.6
2587
Unranked
47.43.0
47.450.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
5414
Unranked
10.54.4
11.515.9
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 7.7
9999
Unranked
18.23.0
13.116.1
Auto
Teleop
End