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Red129
568750.3
170129.8
497721.4
Blue126
234259.9
153867.9
11521.7
8%Model gave it92%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions81162050100200250300129126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5687
#13
50.31.6
48.750.3
Auto-0.4
Teleop50.8
End0.0
blue by 17.6
67.91.4
69.768.3
Auto0.2
Teleop67.7
End0.0
Second
1701
#45
29.81.6
28.229.8
Auto0.4
Teleop29.4
End0.0
blue by 30.1
59.91.4
61.860.4
Auto10.5
Teleop49.4
End0.0
Third
4977
#64
21.41.6
19.821.4
Auto0.4
Teleop21.0
End0.0
blue by 0.2
115
#56
21.71.4
23.121.7
Auto0.2
Teleop21.4
End0.0