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Red34
101118.5
266219.6
116525.8
Blue122
315822.5
153853.8
385318.3
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3359010015020034122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.80.4
15.315.0
Auto0.3
Teleop25.5
End0.0
blue by 28.0
53.85.4
32.337.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop53.8
End0.0
Second
2662
#15
19.60.4
10.910.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop19.8
End0.0
blue by 2.8
22.53.3
15.518.8
Auto0.2
Teleop22.2
End0.0
Third
1011
#28
18.50.4
12.111.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop18.6
End0.0
red by 0.2
3853
#12
18.35.4
9.014.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop18.5
End0.0