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Red185
353660.4
213046.2
544242.6
Blue106
496771.7
332418.9
380221.4
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1229250150200185106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.43.1
47.851.0
Auto1.7
Teleop58.7
End0.0
blue by 11.3
71.70.3
71.171.4
Auto10.5
Teleop61.2
End0.0
Second
2130
#17
46.23.1
42.245.3
Auto0.2
Teleop46.0
End0.0
red by 24.8
3802
#60
21.40.3
15.015.3
Auto2.6
Teleop18.8
End0.0
Third
5442
#16
42.63.1
32.035.2
Auto0.0
Teleop42.6
End0.0
red by 23.7
3324
#57
18.90.3
14.114.4
Auto1.1
Teleop17.8
End0.0