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Red0
66810.9
385920.4
97138.0
Blue56
107221.0
497314.2
325623.2
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9938050150200250056

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
971
#11
38.06.8
44.938.2
Auto0.6
Teleop37.5
End0.0
red by 14.9
3256
#22
23.21.5
21.723.2
Auto0.1
Teleop23.0
End0.0
Second
3859
#14
20.46.8
28.121.3
Auto0.2
Teleop20.2
End0.0
blue by 0.6
1072
#41
21.01.5
13.014.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop21.1
End0.0
Third
668
#43
10.96.8
20.013.2
Auto-0.5
Teleop11.5
End0.0
blue by 3.2
4973
#27
14.21.0
13.914.9
Auto-0.4
Teleop14.5
End0.0