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Red42
49047.8
19243.6
415917.8
Blue4
40473.1
285413.1
325625.6
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions64470204080100120140424

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
192
#17
43.61.1
43.642.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop43.9
End0.0
red by 18.0
3256
#28
25.62.1
21.119.0
Auto0.3
Teleop25.3
End0.0
Second
4159
#21
17.81.1
13.512.4
Auto1.0
Teleop16.9
End0.0
red by 4.7
2854
#46
13.13.4
21.117.7
Auto0.5
Teleop12.7
End0.0
Third
4904
#49
7.81.1
6.25.1
Auto-0.0
Teleop7.8
End0.0
red by 4.8
4047
#54
3.13.4
9.05.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop3.3
End0.0