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Red128
245913.8
313260.6
415844.6
Blue89
246529.4
243925.5
244413.9
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10250015020012889

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.62.1
49.151.3
Auto8.6
Teleop51.9
End0.0
red by 31.2
29.41.4
26.227.6
Auto1.3
Teleop28.1
End0.0
Second
44.62.1
38.440.5
Auto1.1
Teleop43.5
End0.0
red by 19.1
2439
#13
25.51.4
23.224.6
Auto0.9
Teleop24.6
End0.0
Third
2459
#32
13.83.3
10.013.3
Auto0.7
Teleop13.1
End0.0
blue by 0.1
2444
#28
13.92.2
10.713.0
Auto-0.7
Teleop14.6
End0.0