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Red36
421316.3
17125.8
64819.9
Blue102
245740.9
204032.7
202216.3
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5288010015020036102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
171
#18
25.81.8
30.728.9
Auto-0.7
Teleop26.4
End0.0
blue by 15.2
40.90.8
39.640.4
Auto0.2
Teleop40.7
End0.0
Second
648
#22
19.91.8
15.813.9
Auto-0.6
Teleop20.5
End0.0
blue by 12.8
32.70.8
24.925.8
Auto2.1
Teleop30.6
End0.0
Third
4213
#36
16.31.2
13.111.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop16.4
End0.0
red by 0.1
2022
#24
16.31.3
21.322.5
Auto0.7
Teleop15.6
End0.0