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Red10
34687.5
408715.8
299217.1
Blue16
191220.3
333711.7
192726.3
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions35330204060801016

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2992
#36
17.12.0
14.712.8
Auto0.7
Teleop16.4
End0.0
blue by 9.2
1927
#29
26.31.7
15.914.2
Auto0.6
Teleop25.6
End0.0
Second
4087
#20
15.82.0
14.112.1
Auto-0.0
Teleop15.8
End0.0
blue by 4.5
1912
#17
20.31.0
11.610.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop20.5
End0.0
Third
3468
#59
7.52.0
4.82.8
Auto0.0
Teleop7.5
End0.0
blue by 4.2
3337
#50
11.71.2
9.58.3
Auto0.4
Teleop11.2
End0.0