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Red112
358516.3
456443.9
5839.8
Blue81
578224.8
359722.4
6917.6
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions66410208010012014016011281

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.94.5
30.034.5
Auto1.3
Teleop42.7
End0.0
red by 19.1
24.81.7
17.619.3
Auto-0.5
Teleop25.3
End0.0
Second
58
#3
39.84.5
23.027.4
Auto1.2
Teleop38.5
End0.0
red by 17.4
3597
#12
22.41.7
17.419.2
Auto0.1
Teleop22.3
End0.0
Third
3585
#20
16.32.7
11.614.3
Auto-0.3
Teleop16.6
End0.0
blue by 1.3
69
#24
17.62.9
11.714.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop17.7
End0.0