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Red210
436258.6
171145.9
309849.6
Blue172
550543.1
46964.6
421633.9
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions111139050200250300210172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4362
#18
58.64.5
49.754.2
Auto0.7
Teleop57.9
End0.0
blue by 6.0
469
#38
64.61.6
67.368.9
Auto-0.3
Teleop65.0
End0.0
Second
3098
#31
49.64.5
34.639.2
Auto5.7
Teleop44.0
End0.0
red by 6.5
5505
#63
43.11.6
38.239.8
Auto0.9
Teleop42.2
End0.0
Third
1711
#41
45.94.5
35.339.8
Auto1.4
Teleop44.5
End0.0
red by 12.0
4216
#77
33.91.6
34.035.7
Auto0.3
Teleop33.5
End0.0