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Red154
283450.3
3380.6
550543.1
Blue177
31478.2
567528.2
567430.1
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14811950100200250154177

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33
#5
80.60.5
70.470.9
Auto7.3
Teleop73.3
End0.0
red by 2.5
314
#12
78.22.5
79.281.6
Auto0.6
Teleop77.6
End0.0
Second
2834
#40
50.30.5
45.145.6
Auto-0.0
Teleop50.3
End0.0
red by 20.2
5674
#95
30.12.5
30.833.2
Auto-0.4
Teleop30.5
End0.0
Third
5505
#63
43.10.5
33.734.2
Auto0.9
Teleop42.2
End0.0
red by 14.9
5675
#74
28.22.5
17.820.3
Auto-0.9
Teleop29.0
End0.0