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Red111
499426.1
50351.4
511438.8
Blue126
233747.5
150643.0
440531.0
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9996406080120140160111126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
503
#46
51.40.5
44.044.5
Auto-0.3
Teleop51.7
End0.0
red by 3.9
2337
#50
47.51.5
51.352.8
Auto2.9
Teleop44.6
End0.0
Second
5114
#87
38.80.5
34.234.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop38.9
End0.0
blue by 4.2
1506
#36
43.01.5
31.032.5
Auto-0.4
Teleop43.4
End0.0
Third
4994
#98
26.10.5
22.723.2
Auto0.7
Teleop25.4
End0.0
blue by 4.9
4405
#76
31.01.5
19.220.8
Auto2.1
Teleop29.0
End0.0