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Red165
54883.8
516733.1
70329.9
Blue162
546038.3
439146.6
171839.2
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14511350100200250165162

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
548
#3
83.81.0
77.378.3
Auto1.5
Teleop82.3
End0.0
red by 37.2
4391
#54
46.62.0
49.351.3
Auto0.2
Teleop46.4
End0.0
Second
5167
#90
33.11.0
37.538.5
Auto-0.7
Teleop33.8
End0.0
blue by 6.1
1718
#85
39.22.0
41.143.1
Auto2.7
Teleop36.5
End0.0
Third
703
#92
29.91.0
30.531.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop29.9
End0.0
blue by 8.4
5460
#59
38.32.0
31.833.8
Auto0.2
Teleop38.1
End0.0