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Red28
531429.5
521327.8
498317.9
Blue23
497018.4
523023.8
501413.6
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions70330501001502002823

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.51.9
18.316.4
Auto0.7
Teleop28.8
End0.0
red by 5.7
5230
#18
23.80.9
18.317.4
Auto0.1
Teleop23.7
End0.0
Second
27.81.9
27.125.2
Auto-0.0
Teleop27.8
End0.0
red by 9.4
4970
#29
18.40.9
13.712.9
Auto0.4
Teleop18.0
End0.0
Third
4983
#34
17.91.9
21.219.3
Auto-0.3
Teleop18.1
End0.0
red by 4.3
5014
#37
13.60.9
8.37.5
Auto0.1
Teleop13.5
End0.0