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Red36
557714.4
267610.6
83522.8
Blue16
556713.2
568517.5
81512.2
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions33320204060803616

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
835
#6
22.80.4
15.616.0
Auto0.1
Teleop22.7
End0.0
red by 5.3
5685
#13
17.50.9
12.811.8
Auto0.3
Teleop17.3
End0.0
Second
5577
#14
14.40.4
9.29.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop14.7
End0.0
red by 1.2
5567
#29
13.21.5
8.87.2
Auto0.1
Teleop13.1
End0.0
Third
2676
#30
10.60.7
8.49.1
Auto0.1
Teleop10.5
End0.0
blue by 1.6
815
#31
12.21.5
12.811.2
Auto0.4
Teleop11.8
End0.0