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Red0
432712.2
150419.6
364118.3
Blue12
365627.7
167723.0
52273.1
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5349020406080100120140012

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1504
#13
19.62.1
19.117.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop19.8
End0.0
blue by 8.2
27.72.0
29.127.2
Auto0.9
Teleop26.8
End0.0
Second
3641
#26
18.33.5
21.818.3
Auto0.1
Teleop18.1
End0.0
blue by 4.8
23.03.3
11.07.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop23.1
End0.0
Third
4327
#35
12.22.1
13.111.0
Auto0.3
Teleop12.0
End0.0
red by 9.1
5227
#40
3.13.3
11.17.8
Auto-0.0
Teleop3.2
End0.0