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Red26
562310.5
387523.6
51617.6
Blue9
567511.0
152812.4
550112.4
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions372106080100120269

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.60.5
17.416.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop23.7
End0.0
red by 11.2
1528
#19
12.41.3
7.76.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop12.5
End0.0
Second
5623
#27
10.50.8
9.18.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop10.6
End0.0
blue by 1.9
5501
#25
12.41.3
9.58.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop12.5
End0.0
Third
5161
#30
7.60.5
9.69.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop7.8
End0.0
blue by 3.4
5675
#28
11.01.3
7.46.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.0
End0.0