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Red20
364118.3
167723.0
54627.8
Blue21
194011.6
345230.3
44539.1
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3452020801001201401602021

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.01.5
17.115.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop23.1
End0.0
blue by 7.2
30.32.0
28.126.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop30.4
End0.0
Second
3641
#26
18.31.5
10.48.9
Auto0.1
Teleop18.1
End0.0
red by 6.7
1940
#22
11.62.0
15.413.3
Auto-0.0
Teleop11.6
End0.0
Third
5462
#33
7.81.5
10.38.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop7.9
End0.0
blue by 1.3
4453
#18
9.12.0
7.95.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop9.2
End0.0