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Red30
356820.9
16849.7
508413.4
Blue22
366712.7
353632.2
30832.6
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions35720501001502003022

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3568
#22
20.90.6
23.122.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop21.1
End0.0
blue by 11.6
308
#10
32.62.1
31.929.9
Auto-0.2
Teleop32.8
End0.0
Second
5084
#26
13.40.6
10.39.7
Auto0.8
Teleop12.6
End0.0
blue by 18.9
32.22.1
26.824.7
Auto0.9
Teleop31.3
End0.0
Third
1684
#34
9.70.6
9.28.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop10.0
End0.0
blue by 3.0
3667
#23
12.72.1
10.58.5
Auto0.2
Teleop12.5
End0.0