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Red51
519315.8
553817.6
261942.1
Blue59
521512.4
498825.7
550930.7
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6763405080901001105159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.10.9
38.537.6
Auto0.5
Teleop41.5
End0.0
red by 11.4
5509
#10
30.70.3
29.729.4
Auto1.1
Teleop29.6
End0.0
Second
5538
#22
17.60.9
15.915.0
Auto0.6
Teleop17.0
End0.0
blue by 8.1
4988
#14
25.70.3
23.423.1
Auto0.8
Teleop24.8
End0.0
Third
5193
#32
15.80.9
14.213.3
Auto0.3
Teleop15.4
End0.0
red by 3.4
5215
#38
12.40.3
12.512.1
Auto-0.4
Teleop12.7
End0.0