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Red2
57148.5
224616.0
516615.9
Blue10
554712.2
437511.3
570211.6
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions32260406080100120140160210

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2246
#14
16.02.5
12.910.4
Auto0.2
Teleop15.8
End0.0
red by 3.8
5547
#22
12.216.2
23.27.0
Auto0.1
Teleop12.1
End0.0
Second
5166
#19
15.92.5
10.58.0
Auto0.1
Teleop15.8
End0.0
red by 4.3
5702
#34
11.610.0
17.07.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop11.8
End0.0
Third
5714
#32
8.52.2
8.36.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop8.6
End0.0
blue by 2.8
4375
#30
11.31.5
10.79.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop11.5
End0.0