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Red18
542413.3
552513.2
560323.7
Blue4
553812.8
48358.1
523110.0
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions233406080100120140160184

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.736.2
44.17.9
Auto0.8
Teleop22.9
End0.0
red by 10.9
5538
#25
12.811.6
17.66.0
Auto0.5
Teleop12.3
End0.0
Second
5424
#20
13.34.4
12.37.9
Auto0.7
Teleop12.6
End0.0
red by 3.3
5231
#36
10.02.5
15.212.7
Auto0.2
Teleop9.8
End0.0
Third
5525
#17
13.213.2
21.17.9
Auto0.2
Teleop13.0
End0.0
red by 5.1
4835
#37
8.12.5
10.27.7
Auto0.6
Teleop7.5
End0.0