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Red0
377021.5
570211.6
556219.3
Blue10
542413.3
437511.3
55604.8
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions542704080100120140160010

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.50.1
21.421.6
Auto0.3
Teleop21.2
End0.0
red by 8.2
5424
#20
13.31.3
14.012.7
Auto0.7
Teleop12.6
End0.0
Second
5562
#12
19.30.1
18.518.7
Auto1.1
Teleop18.2
End0.0
red by 8.0
4375
#30
11.31.3
12.611.3
Auto-0.2
Teleop11.5
End0.0
Third
5702
#34
11.60.1
11.411.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop11.8
End0.0
red by 6.8
5560
#40
4.81.3
6.04.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop4.9
End0.0