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Red138
547320.5
335732.7
400347.3
Blue128
205452.5
150229.4
277129.7
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions85102050150200250300138128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.32.4
41.944.2
Auto12.4
Teleop34.9
End0.0
blue by 5.2
52.51.2
48.249.4
Auto11.1
Teleop41.4
End0.0
Second
3357
#16
32.72.4
28.030.4
Auto0.3
Teleop32.4
End0.0
red by 3.0
2771
#15
29.71.2
27.528.7
Auto0.6
Teleop29.1
End0.0
Third
5473
#27
20.52.4
20.623.0
Auto1.7
Teleop18.8
End0.0
blue by 8.9
1502
#19
29.41.7
27.429.1
Auto0.7
Teleop28.7
End0.0