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Red126
182522.3
452246.1
495914.7
Blue107
245728.8
132935.2
352822.9
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7784050100150200126107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.10.8
45.346.1
Auto0.0
Teleop46.1
End0.0
red by 10.9
35.20.4
34.835.2
Auto1.2
Teleop34.0
End0.0
Second
1825
#19
22.30.9
21.322.3
Auto0.8
Teleop21.5
End0.0
blue by 6.5
28.80.4
28.328.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop29.0
End0.0
Third
4959
#33
14.70.9
13.814.7
Auto-0.3
Teleop15.0
End0.0
blue by 8.2
3528
#23
22.90.4
22.522.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop23.0
End0.0