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Red126
30373.8
32127.7
48431.1
Blue112
22321.2
121860.8
259058.2
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions131158050100200250300126112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
303
#6
73.80.7
75.074.3
Auto-0.4
Teleop74.3
End0.0
red by 13.0
60.82.4
65.362.9
Auto0.6
Teleop60.2
End0.0
Second
484
#47
31.10.7
32.231.5
Auto1.1
Teleop30.0
End0.0
blue by 27.1
2590
#19
58.22.4
66.964.5
Auto0.8
Teleop57.4
End0.0
Third
321
#46
27.70.7
33.032.3
Auto0.2
Teleop27.4
End0.0
red by 6.5
223
#52
21.22.4
27.625.2
Auto-0.8
Teleop21.9
End0.0