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Red28
401010.9
477512.6
379419.4
Blue12
440121.2
47468.9
47319.7
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions233004060801001201402812

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
19.40.2
10.510.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop19.4
End0.0
blue by 1.8
21.20.5
12.512.0
Auto0.0
Teleop21.1
End0.0
Second
4775
#29
12.60.2
8.68.9
Auto-0.0
Teleop12.6
End0.0
red by 2.9
4731
#32
9.70.5
10.710.2
Auto0.0
Teleop9.7
End0.0
Third
4010
#24Sur
10.90.2
6.06.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.0
End0.0
red by 1.9
4746
#39
8.90.5
6.56.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop9.1
End0.0