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Red25
81015.2
123012.8
42993.9
Blue9
5146.7
42635.6
188425.5
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3530020406080100259

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
810
#24
15.20.9
14.313.4
Auto-0.0
Teleop15.2
End0.0
blue by 10.3
25.51.9
14.712.8
Auto0.7
Teleop24.8
End0.0
Second
1230
#50
12.80.9
16.415.5
Auto0.1
Teleop12.7
End0.0
red by 6.1
514
#54
6.71.9
12.110.2
Auto0.1
Teleop6.6
End0.0
Third
4299
#64
3.90.9
4.73.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop3.9
End0.0
blue by 1.8
4263
#59
5.61.9
5.33.4
Auto-0.0
Teleop5.7
End0.0