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Red45
429811.8
452319.1
216535.7
Blue54
500619.3
93221.4
57307.7
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions354801001502002503003504554

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.70.5
20.320.9
Auto0.1
Teleop35.6
End0.0
red by 14.3
932
#28
21.40.3
16.817.2
Auto0.1
Teleop21.2
End0.0
Second
4523
#14
19.10.5
14.314.9
Auto0.1
Teleop19.1
End0.0
blue by 0.1
5006
#36
19.30.3
21.722.0
Auto0.2
Teleop19.1
End0.0
Third
4298
#29
11.80.5
3.84.3
Auto-0.2
Teleop12.0
End0.0
red by 4.1
5730
#54
7.70.5
9.29.7
Auto0.7
Teleop7.0
End0.0