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Red4
519812.1
252130.8
143210.4
Blue80
281129.6
135922.1
299041.6
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions56850100150200250480

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2521
#11
30.82.6
33.230.5
Auto0.3
Teleop30.5
End0.0
blue by 10.8
41.60.2
36.336.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop41.7
End0.0
Second
5198
#24
12.12.6
16.313.7
Auto0.0
Teleop12.1
End0.0
blue by 17.5
29.60.2
27.327.2
Auto0.7
Teleop28.9
End0.0
Third
1432
#30
10.42.6
13.410.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop10.5
End0.0
blue by 11.7
1359
#12
22.10.2
20.119.9
Auto-0.0
Teleop22.2
End0.0