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Red134
367426.3
263541.5
291517.7
Blue119
142522.5
247137.0
95715.7
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7969204060100120140160134119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.50.9
39.740.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop41.6
End0.0
red by 4.5
37.00.8
36.337.1
Auto-0.0
Teleop37.0
End0.0
Second
26.30.9
24.525.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop26.4
End0.0
red by 3.9
1425
#12
22.50.8
21.822.6
Auto0.3
Teleop22.2
End0.0
Third
2915
#19
17.70.9
15.816.7
Auto0.2
Teleop17.4
End0.0
red by 2.0
957
#23
15.70.8
15.015.8
Auto-0.0
Teleop15.7
End0.0