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Red153
263548.4
321925.4
159552.8
Blue99
84723.1
445049.3
382630.3
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions122925015020015399

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1595
#12
52.81.6
51.052.5
Auto2.2
Teleop50.6
End0.0
red by 3.5
4450
#21
49.30.0
46.346.3
Auto-0.2
Teleop49.5
End0.0
Second
2635
#23
48.41.6
46.948.4
Auto-0.4
Teleop48.8
End0.0
red by 18.1
3826
#49
30.30.0
30.330.3
Auto0.4
Teleop29.9
End0.0
Third
3219
#30
25.41.6
23.825.4
Auto0.3
Teleop25.1
End0.0
red by 2.3
847
#61
23.10.0
23.123.1
Auto0.4
Teleop22.7
End0.0